1931年的德國危機一直以來都受爭論。大部分的學者調查具體的原因, 以便我們可以阻止接下來被認為是在整個經濟中一個傳統存在的大蕭條. 根據有效數據和信息，一些學者堅持認為貨幣危機和銀行危機直接有很大關系。也就是說，第三代危機模式意味著銀行崩潰是直接原因，銀行的混亂及不合理的儲存—貨幣比率和儲備—存款比率導致了貨幣危機，而其它所掌握的第一危機模式更加精確，即德國危機只是單純的貨幣危機。然而，以下是導致德國危機的更多復雜因素及其原因。
1.0 Executive Summary概述
German crisis refers to a severe national-wide financial paralysis in 1931 affected by the Great Depression with heavy industry damaged most. Also other crisis is significant enough to analysis but as the new era of capitalism in Germany, it entails meticulous investigation. The main purpose of this report is to explain what is the German crisis of 1931, namely，the reasons, duration, influence, solutions and so on.
This report comprises the specific reasons for the crisis, for instance political, monetary policies and internal and external reasons. Also the positive and negative effects it has on the whole German economy and the world.
It has been a long-term debate over the German crisis of 1931. And most scholars probe into the specific reasons so that we can forestall the next depression, which is considered a traditional existence in the whole economy. Some scholars insist that there exists a twin relation between the currency crisis and the bank crisis according to the sufficient dates and information , namely a third-generation crisis model, which means the bank collapse is the direct cause and the bank’s disarrangement and unsuitable deposit–currency ratio and reserve–deposit ratio leads to the currency crisis while others hold that a first-model crisis is more accurate , that is , German crisis is only a pure currency crisis (Peter,2008). But the complicated factors have contributed to the German crisis and the reasons are as follows.
3.1 The Reasons of the Crisis 危機的原因
3.1.1 The Political Reason政治原因
German were confronted with a severe political reforms in 1931, the social transformation period .The mainstream comprised the bourgeoisie, on whose behalf the ruling party was inclined to restrict the ever-existing political organization and limit their power . So their policies could not satisfy the public and the civilian population suffering from unemployment and skyrocketing price. They have a tendency to oppose capitalism but reluctant to accept the elimination of private ownership of the proletarian revolution, as well as felt helpless to change the situation. So it was reasonable that other parties and organizations sprouted up .The most obvious one was the Nazi party led by Hitler, who made a resonate speech and embraced the popularity by his claims that a much better life was ensuing with low price, high quality life and less unemployment . So the contradiction and disharmony between different parties, which were not conductive to the whole society as well as the instability after the First World War, rendered the economy static.
3.1.2 The Economic Reason 經濟原因
This maybe is the most overriding one in that different financial policies have various influences. For instance, to a certain extent, the Big Deal promotes the financial recovery of the US and Chinese reform and opening policy inaugurate a new era as a soaring developing country. Between the two wars Germany crisis is naturally esteemed as a comprehensive economy crisis covering all in every domain. Maybe we can conclude that economy and politics are complementary. But economy takes the priority.
220.127.116.11 The Post-war Reparations戰后賠款
Germany was defeated in the war and suffered a lot both in material or spirit. He lost his original colonies and the entire country was carved up by the victorious nations, and subjected to varying degrees of damage in thrall to the financial exploitation from the victory countries and the compensation requirement aggravated the stagnating economy. According to the Treaty of Versailles, German had to apologize for his brutal behavior and increasing amount of causalities as well as a myriad of money to other countries. Also he lost 13.5% territory and 12.5% population, all overseas colonies (including German East Africa, German Southwest Africa, Cameroon, and New Guinea), 16% the coal producing area and half of the iron and steel industry. And the 135 million marks estimated by Moulton and McGuire（Lawrence,2009）put a huge burden on the shoulder of German .
18.104.22.168 The Inflation 通貨膨脹
Inflation is identified as the phenomenon characteristic of greater money supply than the real needs and greater real purchasing power than the output supply, resulting in devaluation of the currency, and general rising of price over time.
compares the difference between the wholesale price index and the exchange rate index , from which we can see that both of them are rising from 1914 to 1918 and 1919 to 1923 and the wholesale price index is higher than the exchange rate index on the whole from 1914-1918 and lower than the exchange rate index from 1919-1923 although the opposite fact that in 1914 the whole price index is lower than the exchange rate index and in 1919 is higher than the exchange rate. Also both the wholesale price index and the exchange rate increased year by year with the former more changeable than the latter from 1914 to 1918 and a big gap from 1919 to 1923. Figures of the wholesale price index from .
1914 to 1918 shows that it was reasonable that the rising wholesale price had to meet the military needs and basic necessities provided for war and the gap between the wholesale price and the exchange rate was not large enough to be a sign of inflation. The higher prices lead to increased government spending.
However, from 1919 to 1923 it is lucid that there was a surplus of production for that the skyrocketing price is beyond the public’s real purchasing ability so German had to keep depend on the overseas. Undoubtedly the big gap between them marked the inflation that led to the soaring commodity prices exceeding economic development and then the national property is devalued, which in turn causes the fixed capital goods, such as rent prices rise and have devastating effects on the production .So the enterprise staffs is unemployed, then the society expends drops, the industry enters the drop circulation, the economy falls into the decline.
22.214.171.124The Foreign Indebtedness 外債
German has been racked with material and spiritual torment since the war in that the massive belts pulls him in a financial predicament. Although the Dwes Pan eased the problem with 800.000.000 gold marks as the external loan(Charles Reginald ,1979)，adverse export trade fails to make up for it . Reichsbank slightly broadened the range of fluctuation for the RMagainst the dollar in order to introduce an element of exchange rate risk that might dampen demand for foreign loans.
According to the Youth Plan, Germany was obligated to pay the debtors in foreign currencies and there was no possibility to float a prolonged loan for Germany. Also the rising price from 1914 to 1918 attracted a influx of foreign investments, mainly from the United State. The main part of the nation has been destroyed such as liquid and raw material so economy recovery entails importation. The volume of German exports has fallen by 14 percent in 1931 when compared with that in 1928 and an additional 31percent in the next year. Funds injection was not limited in industry. It is ubiquitous from the federal government, commune to regulatory bodies to facilitate themselves, even for luxury consumption. Despite the banks lend as the short-term loan , it became frozen and the long-time foreign indebtedness increased year by year. What's more, the various assortments of debts from the banks, individuals and the commercial organizations made it worse.
To some extent, the pervasive inflation jolts the national mark and the best solution is to borrow money from other countries. But the point is that it is sounder to say that inflation renders more foreign indebtedness than reparation.
126.96.36.199 The Bank Crisis 銀行危機
Banks, as the core of the economy and the main measure of economy status, forecast the looming crisis. Bank crisis means the cash conversion from deposit and the large-scale withdrawal at the same time because the customers think banks are, or might become insolvent. As is known, the deposit-currency ratio is typically considered as confidence index on the grounds that the higher the ratio is, the more willing to deposit money to bank.( Bernanke, 1995). In 1931, the biggest German bank , Darmstdter und Nationalbank (Isabel Schnabel,2002) closed in the wake of the insecurity strengthened by the rapid foreign withdrawals and time deposit and demand deposit falling , which sparked a prolonged confidence loss in other bank system and more withdrawals happened. So did the Reichsbank . Reichsbank , as the focal bank of Germany, produced a very sustainable currency ,namely Goldmark. Mark was devalued by the war expense along with the inflationary pressure. What’s more , the fiasco in the war with a large amount of reparation threw in the wallow of social unrest. According to Dawes Plan, one of the key reforms was the establishment of independent German National imperial government institutions. August 30, 1924, the German National Bank started to issue the German mark as the German currency until 1948. However, Reichsbank was closed in 1945 with the defeat of Nazi Germany